Friend of Diamond Hoggers Debuts at Baseball Prospectus

It’s a proud day for us here at Diamond Hoggers because our buddy M.J. Lloyd (co-host of The Baseball Show Podcast) and editor of Off-Base Percentage and Halo Hangout made his debut over at Baseball Prospectus.

M.J. brings it strong, writing about The Pitfalls of Prospect Worship; something that we can relate to pretty easily.

He begins:

Prospects are like new car smell. They’re exciting and intoxicating. They make it seem like your favorite team is about to turn the corner.

From there, M.J. brings it strong. If you’ve got a few minutes today, head over to BP and read his debut post. Way to go “MTD”. We look forward to more of it’s type.

If you’ve lost track of Bryce Harper, here’s an update

We are as excited about Bryce Harper as the next guy, unless that guy is Dave Cameron. We like Cameron’s writing quite a bit. When we’re ready to jump off a bridge because Jay Bruce isn’t hitting–Cameron is the voice of reason–he tells us that due to the data he’s reviewed and the abstract he has looked at, Bruce is going to be alright and a pretty darn good player for our Redlegs. He’s been right so far.

Cameron, like us; loves prospects. He writes for FanGraphs and the USS Mariner. He’s the man. Here’s what he had to say about Bryce Harper today:

And yet, despite all the hype, I’m still not sure we’re accurately appreciating just how good this kid really could be. He’s 18 years old, playing in his first professional season at a time when he should be getting ready to graduate from high school, and he’s hitting .396/.472/.712. That’s his line after last night’s 4 for 5 performance – one which included a grand slam, his eighth home run of the season.

He’s eighteen years old. Sure, it’s only 111 at-bats, but he could go into a slump of epic proportions and still match the numbers put up by some of the best age-18 seasons of all time.

So to sum it up, this kid is good. Like, really, really good. We get daily Google hits each day asking things like ‘why is Bryce Harper such a dick’ along with ‘Bryce Harper’s teammates think he is a dick’. There’s probably some levity to it. But we don’t care. We’re like Dave Cameron, picking pretty flowers, forming a nice boquet for the day he’s ready to accept it; and waiting for the day we can watch him hit like crazy at the Major League level.

We’ve just started following the Minor Leagues in the last few years, and this is one of the most impressive displays of something we’ve ever seen. Right up there with Jay Bruce end of 2007 and beginning of 2008 when the Reds wouldn’t call him up because they were thinking about their pocketbook, foolishly in Bruce’s case because he wasn’t tough to extend long-term anyways.

Someday soon it will be the Devin Mesoraco Show

We’re introducing you to the reason that either Ramon Hernandez or Ryan Hanigan will likely be playing their last season in Cincinnati in 2011. We’re introducing you to the reason that the Reds shouldn’t have probably taken Yasmani Grandal out of Miami U last season in the first round. We’re opening up the tag on Devin Mesoraco.

Our friends over at The Golden Sombrero recently ranked Mesoraco their #27 prospect in baseball. These guys know prospects. Here’s a snippet of what they had to say about the Reds young backstop:

As a former 1st-rounder, Mesoraco is very toolsy and has insane thump at the plate.  He enters 2011 as the likely Triple-A catcher and probably will at least receive a cup or two by the end of the season.  However, management of a Big League rotation is a challenge and typically begins well before the spring.  As a result, I find it very unlikely that Mesoraco won’t still be a rookie in 2012.

He has a 60 arm from behind the dish, and, despite not having Big League feet, probably can catch for at least most of the decade.  He receives rave reviews for his leadership abilities and other intangibles, although we at the Sombrero generally prefer to evaluate the concrete.  Because he did not put it all together until last year, a great deal of scouts wrote Mesoraco off, but we are believers and consider Mesoraco the best position prospect in the Reds’ organization.

The thing is–we like Mesoraco better than Grandal from the things we hear. The odds of having two catchers from your farm system effectively breaking into the big leagues within a year or two of each other doesn’t happen very often. More often than not; one of these two guys end up being a guy who just doesn’t make it. They’ll both get their shot–and Mesoraco will emerge as the guy who can mash when the lights shine the brightest at the big league level.

He had 26 bombs last season across three levels in the minor leagues, and he didn’t strike out in abundance for a guy with such pop.

After this season it’s going to be the more effective of the Ryan Hanigan/Ramon Hernandez tandem and Mesoraco with the older getting the majority of the duties behind the dish. The Reds will be eager to see how much this kid can be fed as a rookie I’m sure. But by 2014, Mesoraco will be one of the best catchers to come out of the Reds farm system since–dare we say it–Johnny Bench.

It’s Soon to Be Baseball Time

The NFL football season is over. It’s time to look towards a brighter day. And in just 65 or some odd days the greatest sport on earth will be delivered to us all.

You’re probably wondering why the larger than life picture of Jason Heyward is up there. I can explain. Everyone has their one thing they’re excited to see in 2011. For me–other than the Reds and Jay Bruce and how they’ll rebound from their first playoff appearance in a decade and a half–I’m living for Jason Heyward’s 2011. A full, healthy season as a 21 year old playing down in Hotlanta with some decent protection in that lineup should serve him well.

Anyone who has read this blog before should know that we’re HUGE Jason Heyward fans. In our fantasy baseball keeper league we’ve already selected him as a keeper. He’s the staple of our team. In 2011, we pull for three things: 1) the Cincinnati Reds, 2) Jason Heyward, and 3) anyone who plays the Phillies on any given night.

We think Heyward is going to arrive on the scene in a huge way and a year or two ahead of schedule. Cannot wait to see the big man hitting ropes all over the park. He might be reason enough to scrape together the funds to get MLB Extra Innings.

Heyward just really seems like a good dude. He’s like the inverse of a guy like Lebron James. He’s flashy, yet humble. We like his game and we like where his head is at.

Last year he topped the list of the Top Prospects in MLB. This year’s Top 50 Prospect list was announced last night. Definitely get to know the names. Mike Trout, Jeremy Hellickson, Bryce Harper, Domonic Brown, and Dustin Ackley round out the top five. Aroldis Chapman is listed sixth–a snub but whatever.

It’s truly going to be an epic season.

Rangers about to unleash some Smoak

Every year there is a prospect who everyone gets up in arms about and rushes to pick up in their Fantasy Baseball League because he’s the next big thing.
Last year it was Chris Davis. How’d that work out?
This year, it’s Justin Smoak.
Smoak, the Rangers first round pick in 2008, was hitting .326 at Oklahoma City. He had reached base at a .476 clip. Smoak is a switch-hitter with discipline at the plate whom the Rangers expect to hit for power. He has two homers at Oklahoma City, but none in the last 10 days.
Smoak has been called up to start tonight’s game. So tonight, we’ll start to see what made Smoak the #9 prospect in all of baseball.
If you haven’t done your homework on Sir Smoak yet, here’s a great post at Baseball Time in Arlington that will educate you on the kid.

2010′s Top 100 Prospects in Baseball

This is Neftali Feliz. He throws that gas babe.

Every now and then you meet the baseball fan who seems to get up in arms about prospects around the minor leagues.

If you’re one of those people, the time to get excited is now. Early lists are circulating of the top 100 prospects in all of the game.

Here’s the top 10 prospects in Major League Baseball for 2010:

1. STEPHEN STRASBURG (RHP), NATIONALS
2. MICHAEL STANTON (OF), MARLINS
3. DESMOND JENNINGS (OF), RAYS
4. JASON HEYWARD (OF), BRAVES
5. JESUS MONTERO (C), YANKEES
6. NEFTALI FELIZ (RHP), RANGERS
7. BUSTER POSEY (C), GIANTS
8. BRIAN MATUSZ (LHP), ORIOLES
9. MARTIN PEREZ (LHP), RANGERS
10. JEREMY HELLICKSON (RHP), RAYS

We’ll keep an eye on these guys and what impact they have at the big league level with their respective franchises in 2010. We’ll admit, in the recent years we’ve had an increasing interest in top prospects.

John Sickels outlines Reds top 20 Prospects

John Sickels over at Minor League Ball has his list of the Cincinnati Reds top 20 minor league prospects. Here they are along with the grade he gives them. Pay attention to those top 5:
1. Aroldis Chapman, LHP A-
2. Todd Frazier, INF-OF B+
3. Yonder Alonso, 1B B+
4. Mike Leake, RHP B
5. Chris Heisey, OF B
6. Juan Francisco, 3B B
7. Brady Boxberger, RHP B-
8. Travis Wood, LHP
9. Matt Maloney, LHP
10. Zack Cozart, SS
11. Donnie Joseph, LHP
12. Billy Hamilton, SS
13. Josh Fellhauer, OF
14. Chris Valaika, SS
15. Neftali Soto, 3B
16. Yorman Rodriguez, OF
17. Juan Silva, OF
18. Juan Duran, OF
19. Juan Carlos Sulbaran, RHP
20. Enerio Del Rosario, RHP

I always take prospects with a grain of salt, especially the guys listed after 5 and 10 on this list. The reason for this is these guys won’t ever make it to the show wearing a Reds cap, or wearing any MLB uniform.
So much can happen between your days in A or AA baseball and your MLB Debut. You must be able to sustain consistency, stay healthy, and make an impression on the scouts at the different levels that you can make an impact at the show. That’s why I’ve never really gotten overly into following careers of prospects, save for a few.
It’s fun to think about what those top 5 or 6 guys will do as Cincinnati Reds, but beyond that who knows what the future holds for any of these guys.

Cincinnati Reds top 40 prospects 10. Billy Hamilton, 9. Zach Cozart, 8. Travis Wood, 7. Brad Boxberger, 6. Chris Heisey, 5. Juan Francisco, 4. Yorman Rodriguez, 3. Mike Leake, 2. Todd Frazier, 1. Yonder Alonso. You’ll want to read ahead to get the skinny on each of them. [Reds Minor Leagues]

The top 20 prospects of AAA (IL) baseball. Couple of interesting take home points here. At what point can you stop calling Andrew Mccutchen a prospect? Nice to see that future Reds and/or Indians make up 20% of the list. And of course, Matt Wieters tops the list. [Baseball America]

Jay Bruce back in Cincinnati; Juan Francisco called up

Two big roster moves that Reds fans have been waiting on took place tonight.

John Fay on Francisco:

They listed Francisco, 22, as an outfielder/infielder. My guess is you’ll see him in left field a bit and he’ll get those starts at third when Scott Rolen is rested.

It will be interesting to see what Francisco can do. He hit a combined .295/.329/.518 with 27 home runs and 93 RBI this year at Carolina and Louisville, including .359/.384/.598 in 92 at-bats after his promotion from Louisville. He’s not selective — 24 walks, 115 strikeouts.

We’re happy that Jay is back in the house with the big boys. We’re happy that he’s healthy. But we knew when we saw the Reds going up against Wandy Rodriguez tonight that he wouldn’t be playing. We just want him to add to his career tallies some more, that’s all. It’s been too long. Business is about to pick up we feel.

Thoughts on Reds 1st round pick Mike Leake

Yesterday the Cincinnati Reds took Mike Leake out of Arizona State University with the 8th overall pick in the first round of the amateur draft.

Leake, 21, is the first pitcher selected by the Reds in the first round since RHP Homer Bailey in 2004. He is the first collegiate pitcher selected by the Reds in the first round since RHP Ryan Wagner (2003). The Reds had selected a position player with their first pick in each of the previous four drafts.

Leake was named 2008 PAC-10 Pitcher of the Year and is a finalist for the 2009 Golden Spikes Award. He is 16-1 with a 1.36 ERA after going 11-3 with a 3.49 ERA last season. The righthander also has been named a semifinalist for the Pitcher of the Year Award presented by the College Baseball Foundation. His 40 career wins at Arizona State are tied for the most in school history. Leake is set to appear in the 2009 College World Series with the Sun Devils.

Leake is 6 feet 1 and 180 pounds. Sounds like Roy Oswalt a little bit. He better turn out to be Oswalt. The Crow kid that the Reds passed over was the better pick, but the Reds were worried about signability issues with Crow and not with Leake.

In all honesty, this is a guy who you’re supposed to be able to say we’re going to put with Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez, and eventually Todd Frazier and Yonder Alonso and hope that we’re going to have a pretty nice core there. But it’s a crapshoot. There’s no guaruntee that this guy ever makes it to the Major Leagues (see Chris Gruler) and even if he does there’s no guaruntee that he’s ever going to be able to have any success at all (see Homer Bailey).

But I’m glad the Reds took a pitcher. And I’m glad that he wasn’t a lefty. Having our own Roy Oswalt might be really nice in a few years.

Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects in 2009

So in case you haven’t seen it, the Top 100 Prospects for 2009 have been released and are being now sponsored by Majestic.

Topping the list is Matt Wieters with David Price a close second. I think in the coming years one of the guys you’re going to see jumping up the list is Rays shortstop Tim Beckham. He’s projected to get to the show in 2012 but I think in the coming years he’ll be in the top 5 on this list and he’ll be pushing to get in the majors by next season at some point. I like that kid a lot from what I’ve read about him. Reminds me of the Uptons.

The lone Reds prospect in the top 100 is good old Todd Frazier; who is listed as a shortstop (what he played in college) a third baseman and a first baseman. I am pulling for him because we’re going to need his right handed bat sooner rather then later; and because he’s from my girlfriends hometown. He was the hype as she was growing up she says and I remember him on that Little League World Series title winner from Tom’s River, NJ years go. I do think there is a shot that once he gets into the big leagues we find out he’s Brandon Larson II.

So have a look. The great thing about prospects is that everyone has someone to be excited about no matter who you root for. If you’re a Yankees fan they’ll be dealt for an all-star of the present but still.

Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects 2009 [Baseball America]

You wonder if any Dominican ballplayer’s age is accurate anymore. Washington Nationals top prospect is not 19 years old but actually 23. Well now that changes things a bit now doesn’t it. That could cause a guy to really not look that valuable at all. This is one of the worst things that can happen to an organization in baseball. [Nationals Journal]

Matt Wieters is a popular young man these days

A name that is sure to get bigger in 2009; and a name that is being thrown around quite a bit this offseason is Matt Wieters. They’re saying Wieters is a hybrid cross between Mike Piazza and Joe Mauer. He’s got size like Jason Varitek. At 6 foot 5 and 230 pounds he’s a massive target. Wieters is 22 years of age and will be there along with the Uptons, Jay Bruce, Evan Longoria, David Price, and Joba Chamberlain as the guys to carry this game into the next generation.

If the Orioles are smart, they’ll make Wieters move out from behind the plate and extend his career before he has too many knee surgeries or foul tips off his bones. I’ve been saying it for years. It does you no good to have your best hitter on the roster behind the plate. I hate seeing that.

Wieters is going to be the sweetheart pick in many fantasy drafts, so be ready to overpay and snag him early if you want him. Wieters was drafted 5th overall in the 2007 draft, and he’s ascended through the ranks of the minors quickly with good power and average numbers. He’s got a gun as well. I guess he throws a 97 MPH fastball (he was a closer in college). He’s going to throw out a ton of runners. The kid should be fun to watch and give Orioles fans something to show up to the park for.