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One of these is not like the others: A look at the MLB leaders in home runs

April 12, 2013 by 1 Comment

Home runs2 4.11.2013

Chris Davis, Michael Morse, Justin Upton.  These are your current MLB leaders in home runs at 6.  Who cares if it’s only April 11th.  The season has been going FOR ALMOST TWO WEEKS ALREADY.  Time to start keeping track.  All three of these players were somewhat recently cast off by their former teams.  Davis went to the Orioles last year, Morse was traded to the Mariners in the off-season, and Upton was trade for 50 cents on the dollar from the Diamondbacks.  These guys have been hot to start the season and Upton is making my Upton brothers projection looking really stupid.  The difference is that Upton is perennially touted as an MVP candidate.  The other two are not so much.  Here is the tally of their home runs so far this season.

Home runs 4.11.2013

How much can these guys keep it up?  Projections:

  • Chris Davis: 33 HR
  • Michael Morse:  31 HR
  • Justin Upton: 29 HR

 

Filed Under: Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners Tagged With: , ,

10 Bold Predictions for 2013: BJ is the Upton with the better 2013 season

March 26, 2013 by 3 Comments

As part of our preview for the upcoming 2012 season, we’ll be doing a 10 Bold Predictions for 2013 series that will be featured between now and Opening Day. Our sixth prediction is that B.J. is the Upton with the stronger 2013 season.

Maybe the story of the off season is that the Braves were able to go out and get the talented Upton brothers.  BJ signed as a free agent from Tampa Bay and Justin was acquired via trade from Arizona.  Both brother possess tremendous athletic ability and skill and have carved out very nice careers so far.  The general consensus has long been that Justin is and will be the better player.  He has just a slightly lower career WAR than older brother BJ in one less season and has the best single season WAR between the two at 5.7.  And most thought that the Braves made a better deal to get Justin than BJ.

I’m going out on a limb though and saying BJ will have the better season.  BJ’s main struggle has been in the batting average department.  After hitting .273 in 2008, he has hovered under .250.  The power hasn’t gone away though – he hit the most home runs in his career last year with 28 and still stole 31 bases.  He is getting out of Tropicana and into a slightly better hitters park.  What if he can get back to .260 this year – that’s pretty much league average now.  And don’t forget the benefit of going to the NL where the talent is generally a notch lower.

Now what about Justin?  He’s always had the advantage in batting average, topping out at .300 in 2009.  He seemingly has been in a bad situation in Arizona where he didn’t “fit in” for some reason.  In 2011 he was just on the cusp of breaking out an MVP season (he wouldn’t have touched Matt Kemp or Ryan Braun in reality) hitting 31 home runs with 21 SB.  But last year he “regressed”, getting only 17 and 18.  That’s not a bad line, but it’s not the line of a young superstar waiting to break out.  A lot of people are pegging Justin to have a huge year now that he is free from the desert.  I’m not so sure.  I see his batting average continuing to slip just a bit to .275 or so.  The power and steals should come back some especially if he plays 158 instead of 150 games.

I see BJ besting Justin this year.  And as I researched this article I found I’m not the only one.  ZiPS projections have BJ besting Justin in WAR by a small margin – 3.8 to 3.3.  We’ll have to wait a few months or longer to see.

Final prediction:  BJ – .261, 32 HR, 92 RBI, 87 runs, 35 SB  Justin – .275, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 90 runs, 21 SB

Filed Under: Atlanta Braves Tagged With: , ,

Atlanta Braves 2013 Team Preview

March 22, 2013 by Leave a Comment

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Braves fans are in for a fun year. You have to admire this organization. Chipper Jones exits stage left as possibly the greatest Atlanta Brave ever. The organization waits just a few months and brings in Justin Upton, a kid that many scouts said would be the next Ken Griffey Jr. type player and added him to a lineup who scouts said would be the next Ken Griffey Jr. type player (Jason Heyward).

The Braves have had a recent string of postseason letdowns. The had the eventual champion Giants on the ropes in 2010 and let them off the hook. They’ve lost one-game playoffs in each of the last two years. Braves fans must feel like they’re a bit snake-bitten.

Major Off-season Moves:

  • Traded for Justin Upton and Chris Johnson (for Martin Prado and Randall Delgado)
  • Signed B.J. Upton
  • Signed Gerald Laird
  • Traded for Jordan Walden (for Tommy Hanson)
  • Chipper Jones retired
  • Michael Bourn, David Ross, Jair Jurrjens signed elsewhere

The Braves run their organization in a professional manner. They’re going to have a really successful season. I expect them to be in the market for a starting pitcher along with St. Louis. If they can shore up their starting rotation, this team is going to be one of the top teams in baseball. They might be anyways, but at the end of the day I like their division rival Washington’s starting pitching a bit more.

[Read more...]

Filed Under: 2013 Diamond Hoggers Season Previews, Atlanta Braves Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Arizona Diamondbacks 2013 Season Preview

February 22, 2013 by Leave a Comment
goldiebearjew

I am Bear Jew, hear me roar.

It wasn’t long ago that the Diamondbacks were the feel good story in all of baseball. It seemed like that 2011 team was Justin Upton and a bunch of guys, and they rolled into the NLDS against the Milwaukee Brewers where they came ever so close to advancing to the 2011 NLCS. The model worked as it should, a team built around a young superstar overachieved a year ahead of schedule. Bruce Springsteen was being played on the stadium organ. Good times were had by all. With some luck and decent moves, a supporting cast would be built around Justin Upton for years to come.

It would never be more than a mirage for Arizona. This offseason wasn’t about who they added, but rather the trade that sent their franchise player to Atlanta to play with his brother. The package the Dbacks received in return for Upton wasn’t all that exciting, and it’s clear that they settled for much less than they could have yielded at other points if they were so set on trading Upton.

The organization continually remarked behind closed doors that Upton wasn’t “a winning player”. Go ahead and Google it now, you won’t find any other reasons behind why Upton was dealt. That’s because there were no good reasons. It was a stupid move and even when Arizona makes it back to the postseason in another eight or so seasons, it still won’t be a good move. It didn’t have to go down this way, and the Dbacks have unofficially stuck their flag in rebuild mountain.

They traded Trevor Bauer for being a dipshit, too.

Major offseason moves:

  • Traded Justin Upton for Martin Prado and Randall Delgado
  • Signed Eric Chavez
  • Traded for Tony Campana
  • Signed Rod Barajas
  • Traded Trevor Bauer for Didi Gregorius
  • Signed Brandon McCarthy to a 2-year, $15.5 million dollar contract

After the jump we’ll take a look at the 2013 Diamondbacks projected lineup and pitching staff.

[Read more...]

Filed Under: 2013 Diamond Hoggers Season Previews, Arizona DiamondBacks Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Mevs’ Thoughts on the Justin Upton Trade

January 30, 2013 by Leave a Comment

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I considered this trade to be huge news, so the fact that I’m not getting around to writing a take on it until the week after should tell you that something pretty monumental was going on in my away-from-blogging life I try to have every once in a while.

In actuality, nothing monumental really was going on. I went with my company from my real job to Las Vegas. I gambled on Canadian hockey, saw a guy offering to be kicked in the nuts for $20 (he told me he had been kicked over 5,000 times for those of you wondering how it’s possible), and generally just did some people watching in a city that offers you a little of everything. Playing blackjack at Belagio beats the heck out of the online casinos.

The day I left, Justin Upton was dealt to Atlanta (we told you that’s where he was headed on this episode of The Baseball Show Podcast) for a package of players valued a lot less than a package for Justin Upton should have yielded.

I cannot wait to hear why Kevin Towers is the smartest man in the room on this one. Can’t. Wait. And mark my words, it will make it’s way out into the media. We’re going to know almost every juicy detail of this. Someone’s going to have some ‘splaining to do. And it’s going to be Towers.

It works out perfectly for Atlanta. They’ve now got just enough ammo to challenge the once thought to be invincible Nationals. You can just about count on Justin Upton to go off, stay free of nagging injuries, and generally be the MVP candidate he was always supposed to be. I’ve got nothing against the Braves, but no one deserves Justin Upton for a small price like that.

In closing, I want you all to remember back to that day before the 2012 season when I told you it would all fall apart for Upton and the Diamondbacks. My God I am the smartest man alive.

Image h/t: My buddies MJ & Mike

Filed Under: Arizona DiamondBacks, at-work post, Atlanta Braves Tagged With: ,

Hot Stove Update

January 29, 2013 by Leave a Comment

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

One big move and a few middling ones has kept the hot stove burning warm through the end of January.  Let’s review:

Justin Upton was trade to the Atlanta Braves along with Chris Johnson for Martin Prado, Randall Delgado and some minor leaguers including Zeke Spruill and Brandon Drury.  Upton had previously invoked his no trade clause on a deal to the Mariners which would have netted the Diamond a much nicer haul.

The whole thing was a bit weird.  I’m not going to go into stats that say Upton was declining or he isn’t as good of an OF as he should be – there’s plenty of that.  What other team traded a 25 year old superstar for a consistent .300 hitter and some other pieces.  Upton was a fairly popular pick for MVP last year.  Some say that the Dbacks knew something others teams don’t.  I don’t buy that at all.  Upton must have rubbed someone the wrong way, because I don’t see how this makes great baseball sense.  Chemistry is overrated.  You know what players are good chemistry guys?  The ones on teams that are winning.

In other news, the Mets signed Shaun Marcum to a one year deal which I think could be good for him.  There wasn’t a huge market and he can try and regain his old form pitching in an average division in a pitcher friendly park.  Maybe next year he can go out and get more money or more years.  Why would the Mets do it?  Why not?  It’s only one year.

Finally, Kelly Johnson signed with the Rays.  That is all I can say about that.

It’s just the hot stove season right now, but it’s never too early to begin looking at 2013 MLB All Star Game ticket prices. The weather will be warming up before we know it and if you plan on attending the Midsummer’s classic, it’s never too early to start looking.

Filed Under: Arizona DiamondBacks Tagged With: , , ,

The Baseball Show: Only an Insane Man Tries This Hard to Trade Justin Upton

January 11, 2013 by Leave a Comment

This evening on The Baseball Show podcast, I was joined as always by co-hosts Mike Rosembaum (Bleacher Report Prospect Pipline, Golden Sombrero) and M.J. Lloyd (Halo Hangout, Off-Base Percentage).

Topics of discussion included:
-The Hall of Fame voting
-Which teams that have never had a Hall of Famer will next get the opportunity to have one?
-Baseball’s new mandatory HGH testing policy
-Justin Upton’s rejected trade to the Seattle Mariners, and why would the Diamondbacks try this hard to trade him?
-MLB ’13 The Show Cover Campaign Talk
-”Collectors corner”
-Zips Projections for the Angels, Mike Trout, Josh Hamilton

Filed Under: The Baseball Show by Diamond Hoggers Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , ,

ESPN The Magazine Examines How Mike Trout Will Age

September 20, 2012 by Leave a Comment

A phenomenal read about Mike Trout (the Justin Upton piece is great too) brought to us by ESPN the Magazine today, and a nice reference to a decent movie that my wife made me attend.

Everybody’s writing about him and trying to find that good new angle,” said one of the beat writers in the Angels’ press box in early July. “Kid’s 20. What sort of interesting story could he have at 20?” But there it is, on the field, every day — the most interesting story in baseball. And so one year into his career, baseball reckons with how good Mike Trout really is, how good he will be and what could stop him. And that’s when our resolve breaks down and we give. Mickey Mantle? Okay. We hate ourselves. But it’s not the worst place to start.

The Phenom [ESPN the Magazine]

Filed Under: Anaheim Angels Tagged With: ,

10 Bold Predictions for 2012: Justin Upton & the Arizona Diamondbacks Regress

March 29, 2012 by 5 Comments

As part of our preview for the upcoming 2012 season, we’ll be doing a 10 Bold Predictions for 2012 series that will be featured between now and Opening Day. Our sixth prediction is that Justin Upton and the Arizona Diamondbacks are in for a long 2012 campaign.

Justin Upton was unbelievable last season. If it weren’t for J-Up and his motley crew that made up the rest of the band, what would we have possibly done with ourselves down the stretch run? As unheralded and unlikely as the Diamondbacks were, they came so very close to reaching the NLCS last fall.

Upton had a season that will always stand out on the back of his baseball card as his breakout performance. He finished 4th in MVP balloting with a .289 average, 31 home runs, 105 runs, 88 RBI, and 21 stolen bases. His slash line was a pretty .369/.529/.898, falling just short of that rare .900 OPS air. He was a 6.4 fWAR player at age 23, entering even more rare company.

And now it all comes crashing down for Upton, at least somewhat. A large part of his success last season was because he appeared in 159 names, such is always half the battle in putting together a big time season. We’re going to predict a season in which he has a production similar to 2010 (.273, 17 HR, 69 RBI, .356/.442/.799). And it’s going to be due to a catastrophic injury of some type that limits his playing time to less than 120 games rather than regression of ability. That’s the only thing that bring a talent like Upton’s to a screeching halt at this point.

It’s not due to any data or evidence either. Like with all of our predictions, this one deals with gut feeling. We don’t think it’s likely that Upton strings together another season in which he playas in over 150 games. Maybe it’s because we took him with our first pick in fantasy baseball in one of our most important leagues–and things like that just usually don’t work out for us. But we feel that something out there will keep Upton from staying on the path of becoming the next Junior Griffey type talent of baseball.

And such leads to the snowball of the Diamondbacks who will go as Upton goes in 2012, and they know it.

Kirk Gibson willed this team to 94 regular season wins in 2011, no small feat when your regulars were guys like Gerardo Parra, Ryan Roberts and Willie Bloomquist among others. A summer to remember it will be, especially when the Diamondbacks struggle to get to 75 wins in 2012.

Another guy we see the regression grim reaper coming for in a large way is closer J.J. Putz. He was a strength last year with 45 saves and a 2.12 ERA, but he’ll be 35 this season and last season’s remarkable performance came on the heels of three straight up and down campaigns for Putz. Expect David Hernandez to emerge as the closer by mid-season for one reason or another.

We think that Daniel Hudson will actually be a lot better in 2012, but there’s no way Ian Kennedy goes 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA again. Trevor Cahill, Joe Saunders, and Josh Collmenter won’t combine to do much for you after those two, either.

Everyone is predicting a breakout year for Paul Goldschmidt whom we love, but 30 homer projections are probably a year early at this point. Stephen Drew is banged up and the scab under the band-aid peels completely off this season, while guys like Roberts and Chris Young settle in to who they really are as players rather than having career years again.

This team will finish no greater than third in the NL West to pitching rich San Francisco and the underrated Rockies.

Filed Under: Arizona DiamondBacks Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , ,

The D-Backs Win in a Wild One, Force Game Five

October 6, 2011 by Leave a Comment

I haven’t taken the time to sit through an entire 9 innings yet this postseason. Things in life just seem to get in the way. Now relax, I’m not guilty like some of my peers that tell me they haven’t watched any playoff baseball. I would never be that guy. But life has been getting busy on me.

So last night I decided I wasn’t going to miss any of the Arizona/Milwaukee game. I grabbed my puppy and let the little tike sleep on my shoulder and watched nearly every pitch. After all, the D-backs are my playoff horse. I needed to will them on to victory. And the scrappy-ass little Arizona DiamondBacks came through for me by winning 10-6 in front of their home fans and forcing game five in Milwaukee on early Friday evening.

The game got off to a wild start with Joe Saunders giving up a run in the top of the first inning and then the D-backs responding back to put five on the Brewers in the bottom of the frame. Ryan Roberts hit a grand slam and then Chris Young got one to fly out.

I had worries that Arizona would take their foot off the gas. They’re young, and relatively inexperienced. But they didn’t stop grinding. Milwaukee would cut the lead to 5-3. But then a guy named Collin Cowgill would add a pinch-hit two run single to make the score 7-3.

The entire state of Arizona thought this game was going to be tied 7-7 when Corey Hart hit a ball to the track with the bases loaded that somehow Gerardo Parra ran down on the track in left center field. When Hart connected, I even said out loud “oh no, he got it”. He didn’t get it.

Arizona wouldn’t cast any doubt in our minds from that point on. The ball was flying out last night. The organ was magical. The D-backs were victorious. They’ll either go on to the NLCS or win their final game in front of their home fans.

Kirk Gibson’s boys delivered in giving us a third game five in the NLDS. The rest of America should realize that this roster set is a group of ‘guys’ that just seemed to gel and will never do this again. For that reason alone (and the incessant man-love for Justin Upton that I have) I want this team to knock off a seemingly loaded Milwaukee team on Friday night.

[Box Score]

Filed Under: Arizona DiamondBacks, big wins, League Division Series, Milwaukee Brewers, MLB Playoffs, Postseason Tagged With: , , , , , , ,

Welcome to the Postseason, 2011 Arizona DiamondBacks

September 24, 2011 by Leave a Comment

The D-Backs are in the playoffs. They did it by going through the front door, defeating the defending World Champions 3-1 in Arizona. The big blow was yet another big hit by Paul Goldschmidt, a two run triple in the 8th inning with the game tied.

There’s nothing sexy about this team. In my opinion they’ve got the NL MVP who they’re built around, and a gritty manager who will be great for years to come in Kirk Gibson. Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy have been phenomenal; and J.J. Putz has had a great year. But other than that little core–they’re chalked full of guys that if they ran out together for another 20 seasons would never be able to repeat this feat.

And it’s because of this unlikely turn of events that we’ve hopped on the D-Backs bandwagon. This is awesome. Justin Upton and Kirk Gibson against the world. We hope they write the first chapter in a remarkable story this fall.

Filed Under: Arizona DiamondBacks, Clinching Pennants, San Francisco Giants Tagged With: , , , , ,

Justin Upton’s broken-bat home run the only score tallied in D-Backs 1-0 win over Pirates

September 20, 2011 by Leave a Comment

[Box Score]

The Diamond Backs won 1-0 last night in Arizona over the Pirates, and Ian Kennedy went 8 strong innings to win his 20th game of the season.

The season of magic continues for the Dbacks–that was the first 1-0 game in Arizona since 2008–and the lone run of the game came off the (broken) bat of who else, Justin Upton for a solo home run.

And this is my playoff horse. I want the D-Backs to make a run that ends with them playing an AL team in the World Series. They’ve been scrappy enough to distract me from the listless, lethargic, lifeless Cincinnati Reds. For that I’ll be forever grateful.

The D-Backs magic # now sits at just 4 with 8 to play.

Filed Under: Arizona DiamondBacks, pennant chase, Pittsburgh Pirates Tagged With: ,

From now on, There will be only one

September 13, 2011 by Leave a Comment

So two weekends ago I got married. Then I went on a cruise to the Bahamas with the new Mrs. Diamond Hoggers. I hope that is a good excuse for my absence. The night before my wedding I guaranteed my uncle that the Reds would win on my wedding day and that Jay Bruce (the Godfather of Diamond Hoggers would homer).

The Reds didn’t win the day I tied the knot. They lost 6-4 in St. Louis. My boy Homer Bailey was the reason. But sure enough, Jay Bruce homered for the 29th time on the season. A few days after that while I was in the Bahamas he joined the 30 home run club for the first time in his career.

So yea, other than that what else is new? I mean I have a wife now. Crazy. I never thought there would be someone out there that could tolerate me.

And I was thinking about it, even with the start of NFL season I really, really miss being in a September pennant chase. I mean I miss it worse than I think I’ve ever missed anything. The Reds better come back next April and be absolutely awesome because I can’t put up with another season like this one where I can never really get invested.

There’s no doubt, my baseball blogging has suffered. So I apologize. It’s hard to write about something you love so much when what is at the center of that love has been the cause of so much frustration all summer long and into the fall.

But I love the Reds. I’m happy to see Juan Francisco is dropping 500 foot bombs. I love that Mesoraco is up. I love Yonder Alonso. The future is still looking alright, I think.

I love Justin Upton. I’m looking forward to an NL Playoff field that includes the Braves, Brewers and D-Backs trying to unseat those son of a bitchin’ Phillies.

I’ll try to write more, you know now that I’m married and wandering around my home in a bath robe with a pipe and all doing what married bloggers do. Yea, not really.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: , , , ,

The Arizona DiamondBacks are a reason to keep watching

August 10, 2011 by Leave a Comment

[Box Score]

[AZ Snakepit]

The Arizona DiamondBacks wanted to quit. But Justin Upton would not let them quit.

Before this season started, I had this feeling that Jason Heyward was going to be the Ken Griffey Jr. of this era. I’m usually pretty good about nailing those types of things. But I pegged the wrong young player. It’s going to be Justin Upton. Heyward can be some other re-incarnate. Upton is going to be the best player in baseball over the next 10 years. And these Dbacks are the early 90′s Mariners, just getting started.

Because really, who were the Seattle Mariners before Griffey showed up? This situation is so much like that situation that it’s almost not even close.

The Dbacks have to find a way to win this thing. In a postseason that is going to have my Reds shut out of, and have a field of returning teams like the Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rangers; I’ve got to have someone to pull for.

They have to pull this thing out, and Upton has to end up MVP. There’s no other two ways about it.

Oh, and this is the song that is played after every Diamondbacks home win at Chase Field. It’s called ‘DiamondBacks Swing’.

Filed Under: Arizona DiamondBacks, Houston Astros Tagged With:
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