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10 Bold Predictions for 2013: The Guys We Promise to have a HUGE Year

March 26, 2013 by 2 Comments

Eric+Hosmer

As part of our preview for the upcoming 2012 season, we’ll be doing a 10 Bold Predictions for 2013 series that will be featured between now and Opening Day. Our fifth prediction: these guys will be monsters in 2013.

This is a tough post to actually structure. I want to just bullet all these guys and let it ride, but I feel you’re owed more than that. These guys are going to have really good to absolutely monstrous 2013 seasons. Sure it’s mostly on a gut feeling, and no I haven’t reviewed their fly ball rate or their poor BABIP from last season that’s sure to rise.

You’re just going to have to take my word for it on these guys. And feel free to bookmark it and come back to it when the season is over. These guys are either going to become household names or have a spike like Ian Desmond did last season before tapering off slowly, or this season will be the one anomaly on the back of their baseball card. And we’re not going to use any guys who are already studs either, because that’s just low-rent.

Bank on the following players to have the best season of their careers in 2013:

Ike Davis: Over the Valley Fever, time to ride. The last time an ‘Ike’ was this good at hitting something, Tina Turner was topping the Billboard Top 100 charts.

Eric Hosmer: Every once in a while, there’s guys who are just too damn good to be down for long. He had a great spring, and reminded us of Joey Votto in his rookie year. He’s going to look a lot like Votto before Votto won an MVP this year which is pretty strong.

Homer Bailey: Bailey will be the best starting pitcher statistically in the Reds rotation this year now that they’ve put Aroldis Chapman in the bullpen. Pencil him in for 18 wins and an ERA around what he did last year. Somehow he’ll scrape 200 innings out of his arm that experts told us would break down years ago. Bailey will never have a season like this again, falling short of being the top of rotation stud many though he would be for a decade.

Adam Eaton: He’s going to miss some time to begin the season, but when he hits the lineup he’ll be an immediate impact in Arizona. Eaton is the real deal and a throwback version of yesteryear’s ballplayer. They just don’t make them like this guy anymore. He’ll hit .300, and if you extrapolate the numbers he puts up to 162 games, he’ll make your eyes bulge.

Josh Rutledge: Everyone is so excited about the return of King Tulo that they forget about the nice little player that developed right in front of their eyes last year. I say Rutledge puts up better offensive numbers than Tulo does in 2013.

Brandon Belt: Belt hasn’t really done what he was expected to do yet. This is the year you can count on a nice average, 23 to 25 home runs, and 80 to 85 RBI.

Starling Marte: Dread Pirate McCutchen finally gets a real first mate in Pittsburgh. Marte has the ability to do 25 homers and 40 steals as early as this season. Even if he misses, how does something like 18 long ones and 38 steals sound?

Anthony Rizzo: Here’s one of the safest bets in baseball to do .270 and 35 home runs.

Derek Holland: Someone that NO ONE is talking about is going to go out and contend for a Cy Young this year. It happens every damn year. Some relative, decent pitcher comes out and all of the sudden ‘finds it’ and they go 18-3 with a shiny ERA. Holland will have Kyle Lohse numbers from last year or something closer to it.

Max Scherzer: I’m honestly 99% certain that Scherzer will have better numbers than Verlander will in 2013. People now know why I pick the Tigers to be a World Series contender so easily, and it’s not Miggy and Fielder.

Chris Tillman: I think in a down year for the Orioles, it will be Tillman and not a Chris Davis who impresses the most. Tillman is a lottery ticket type guy, but I think he shows a little bit of magic in 2012.

Yonder Alonso: Laugh at the lack of power last season all you want. Go ahead, talk about Yasmani Grandal being the young breakout star on the Padres. Yonder from The U is going to make all you doubters look foolish in 2013. Look for .285, 25, and 100 RBI from the forgotten man in San Diego.

If we go for any more than that, we’re going to start predicting guys that everyone is all over. And that’s no fun. Look for these guys to climb in 2013. We’ve just got a feeling about them. Write it down, in permanent marker, on your grandmother’s antique dinner table in fact.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: ,

Cincinnati Reds 2013 Team Preview

March 19, 2013 by 1 Comment

Jay+Bruce

If you want me to be 100% honest, I thought it was the Reds year last year. I truly thought after they won the first two games of the NLDS in San Francisco that this team was headed to the World Series. The Reds were going to do one better than my prediction I made before the season of just reaching the NLCS; they were actually going to win the NL pennant and give themselves a shot at the first Cincinnati World Title since 1990 when I was eight years old.

The Reds completely broke my heart when they collapsed. Truth be told, I’m still not recovered from it. While I’m excited for  baseball season, I don’t necessarily think that this team in this window will ever be any better positioned to win it all. You can tell me that I’m wrong, and you can tell me that they’re better for the experience they gained and all that. My opinion is the Reds missed a golden opportunity to win it all last year and will never have a better opportunity.

The American League as a whole was suspect last season and I knew at the time that the hot team from the National League would probably win it. At first glance that team looked to be the Reds. Then Johnny Cueto got hurt. Then the Reds couldn’t make a few plays when Homer Bailey threw the gem that should have ended the series. Then the Reds had to throw Leake and throw away game four. Then in game five, Buster Posey drove a stake in my heart that will never be removed.

With that, I decided that I’ll never again believe it’s going to happen until the moment actually arrives. I am forever skeptical; forever jaded. There is no such thing as ‘we’re going to win the whole damn thing’ before we do it as I declared last year on Opening Day. Not this year. You have to prove it to me now.

Major Off-Season Moves:

  • Signed Jack Hannahan
  • Traded for Shin-Soo Choo
  • Re-signed Ryan Ludwick
  • Re-signed Jonathan Broxton
  • Re-signed Manager Dusty Baker

I know this team so well it’s scary sometimes. When I wake up in the morning during the season and the Reds have a game on their schedule, I know if they’re going to win or lose 95% of the time before the game is even played. I still watch and see the results play out. But at the end of things when the final out is recorded, I usually had a pulse of how things were going to go. My wife sometimes asks me why I don’t just smell the roses when following this team. Why don’t I just enjoy things a little bit more? I wish it were that easy. When this much passion gets involved; when you want something so badly, you can’t help but expect the zenith.

I want that damn trophy at the end of the year. There’s no reason that this group in this era shouldn’t win a title. They’re as good as anyone in the league right now. Everyone has their breaks, their weak spots, their bad luck; it’s time to go out and get it done. Anything less is considered an absolute failure. And if and when that happens I can’t help but be completely exasperated, usually after an emotional explosion.

Here’s a look at yours and my 2013 Cincinnati Reds after the jump. [Read more...]

Filed Under: 2013 Diamond Hoggers Season Previews, Cincinnati Reds Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Talk Me Down From The Ledge

October 10, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Last night was as it should have been. Homer Bailey was as dominant as a pitcher has ever been in the postseason.

According to Elias Sports Bureau, last night Homer Bailey became only the fourth pitcher in Major League Postseason history to allow 1 or fewer hits while striking out least 10 batters and throwing at least 7.0 innings…he joins Bal’s Mike Mussina (1997 ALCS vs Cle, 8ip, 1h, 10k), NYY’s Orlando Hernandez (1999 World Series vs Atl, 7ip, 1h, 10k) and NYY’s Roger Clemens (2000 ALCS vs Sea, 9ip, 1h, 15k).

Yet, the Reds drop this one 2-1 in 10 innings in front of the second largest crowd ever on hand at Great American Ballpark. Today, it’s Mike Leake pitching the biggest game of the Reds’ season. Johnny Cueto is done for the NLDS and the NLCS. Just terrific.

If the Reds bats awaken, they’ll move on to the NLCS. If they don’t, we’re going to lose this series in five game in a national embarrassment. If I’m completely honest with everyone that reads this blog; I’m not really satisfied with simply getting to the NLDS and winning a few playoff games. I want this damn series. I don’t care that Johnny Cueto and the team was dealt a really poor hand–and that’s what it was. When Homer Bailey pitches his ass off for you in an effort to keep you free from a lot of headaches, get more than four hits (three of which came in the first inning of the ballgame).

I now have a rotten feeling in my core I can’t seem to shake. That’s my thoughts on this early afternoon of what will be game four of the NLDS between the Giants and the Reds.

Filed Under: Cincinnati Reds, MLB Playoffs, San Francisco Giants Tagged With: , ,

The Night Homer Bailey Ruled The Earth

September 30, 2012 by Leave a Comment

[Box Score]

[Cincinnati.com] [All 27 outs - MLB.com]

When a pitcher goes 27 up, 27 down without allowing a hit; you never forget the feat that he accomplished. You remember the moment forever when you witness it.

To put in perspective the immortals that Homer Bailey joined last night, it was just the second no-hitter thrown by a Reds pitcher in my lifetime. I was just five years old in 1988 when Tom Browning threw a perfect game. I remember talking about it with my father, but just barely. If I live a full life, I might see one more Cincinnati Reds no-hitter.

If I could have chosen one guy in the big leagues that I would have liked to see throw a no-no, it would have been Homer Bailey. He’s been my favorite Reds pitcher for a long time now. I wrote back in April on my frustrations surrounding Bailey. He’s got that tragic hero trait. He’ll go out and have unbelievable stuff for six innings and then the wheels fall off. Or the bullpen inevitably blows his win (how many times has it happened this year alone?). Whacky things happen to bad-luck Bailey. But he’s been remarkably solid this season. He’s tied with Johnny Cueto to lead the team in quality starts. And he’s the only guy on that Reds roster that can speak on what it’s like to throw one of those games that Nolan Ryan knew about so well.

This was another moment in a season comprised of so much magic. If you are sitting here thinking that times are going to be like this for the next several seasons for Cincinnati; and granted they should be, please don’t be naive. It’s likely that we’ve reached the apex for this current group. Seasons like this and moments like this come along only a few times across a lifetime.

To that I say at least we were around to see it all unfold. I’ve been around the game for a long time, and I’ve seen a lot of nine inning frames expire. It takes a big moment for me to stand inches from the television (my only company being my dog) and to be yelling and pacing with every pitch. I wanted that so badly for Homer Bailey last night that when the pop up was hit to Brandon Phillips for out number 27, I yelled at the top of my lungs ‘YES! GET IT! YES!’.

Congratulations Homer Bailey. You’ve proven to the world that all that promise and all that patience was for good reason.

Filed Under: Cincinnati Reds, History, No-hitters, Pittsburgh Pirates Tagged With:

Stan the Man Couldn’t Sniff the Homer Bailey Express Because He Wasn’t Man Enough

July 21, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Remember what I told y’all?

The only thing Bernie Brewer had to drink last night was my hot piss!

[Loads rifle, fires it in the air; twice]

Where’s that little bald-headed fuckjaw Jocketty? I reckon his desires to set me down in that bullpen have disappeared just like his view of his little pecker has over the years. Looking to acquire a pitcher? Take the day off, baldy. Just tell that worry-wart Price that I’m ready to go another nine innings tonight, and I’ll go another full nine tomorrow if he brings the right ingredients for moonshine.

[Gigs frog, hard]

Braun, Ramirez, Hart, Weeks, the little china-man lead off hitter. Not a one of um’ had balls enough to fornicate with Homer’s rocket fastball last night. When Chapman came in for the 9th inning, it musta’ seemed like a fuckin’ picnic.

The fans in this town got their britches all in a wrinkle about winning a pennant. The only flag we need to worry about bringing home this year is Clint Hurdle’s wife’s panties. And that’ll be no problem because the Homer Bailey Express was built for a long season of fucking.

[Skins muskrat with pocket knife]

Go dig up that pussy Musial, tell um’ I think he’s yella. I wanna challenge him to a draw, best man wins. When he turns around, only gun I’m going to be holdin’ is that big ace meat rocket that dangles between this legs. Cooperstown ain’t never seen anything like this.

[Takes off pair of long underwear, Puts on pair of ass-less chaps]

And I’m gonna give Stan ‘The Man’ a message to deliver to his Cardinal buddies from the Prince of 98 Miles per hour….. you tell um that Homer Bailey is ready for them, and he’s comin’ out fuckin’ down the stretch! That’s right, Holliday, Beltran, Furcal, and all the other St. Louis speds they got over there. Get ready for an orgy of splitters boys, it’s Homers turn with the ladies at this square-dance.

[Looks in mirror, combs hair back with a cougar bone handle comb]

Yeeeeeeeehawwwwww! If you think that fastball moistened some panties last night, you ain’t seen nothing yet!

I’m putting the Central Division on notice! I love baseball in a pennant chase because that’s when the whores come out! YEEEEEEEEHAWWWWW!

 

Filed Under: Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals, we really do love this guy Tagged With:

Reds Weekend Sweep the Cardinals in Cincinnati

July 16, 2012 by Leave a Comment

[Box Score]

[Hal McCoy] [Cincinnati.com]

What a weekend.

On the weekend that my best friend tied the knot (the Reds lost to the Cardinals on my big day), the Reds swept the Cardinals and reclaimed sole possession of first place in the NL Central standings. They played on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball last night. It’s the first time it’s been in Cincinnati in a very long time. Last night was about as large as a July ballgame gets. The Reds showed the nation that pitching, defense, and timely hitting are the best ways to build something special.

I think Friday and Saturday night’s games were additional evidence in this. I didn’t realize that the Reds basically have the finest defense in baseball. The starting pitching and bullpen have been phenomenal. It’s the hitting that has ran pretty hot-cold. And if you’re going to have one ingredient that is going to waiver with your ball club, I think you should want it to be the hitting. Everyone slumps. If you can keep pitching and defense from going into slumps you can manufacture enough runs to win. Especially in Great American Ball Park.

The Reds hitting will come around. I remember so many weekends where it wasn’t even fathomable to sweep the high and mighty St. Louis Cardinals. To even go into Sunday with a chance of a sweep was like playing in the Super Bowl. Last night, I expected the win. I knew Homer Bailey would pitch his ass off.

The Reds are going to win the division this year. They’re going to go to the NLCS. Believe it. Know it. Times might get ugly, but more often than not they’ll find a way (it doesn’t get much uglier than Scott Rolen winning one for you with an opposite field single).

This is the team that you waited since 1990 and 1995 for Cincinnati. Try to soak it in.

Filed Under: Cincinnati Reds, Rivalries, St. Louis Cardinals, sweeps Tagged With: ,

Homer Bailey Cowboys Up in LA

July 3, 2012 by Leave a Comment

I watched every moment of the Reds’ quality 8-2 win in Los Angeles last night. I’m digging these late-night start times on the West Coast because it gives me a chance to get things I would normally procrastinate done before the game starts and to be more of a normal human being rather than a guy who adjusts life to see baseball game start times on television.

Couple of things about last night’s game, which I watched from my buddy Joe’s mancave:

1. Homer Bailey – Here’s why you love Homer Bailey. Here’s why you have so many hopes and dreams for the guy, why you think that he could hold the key to getting this team through October playoff series, why you feel the sky is the limit. Bailey gave up a few early runs in this one but settled in to retire either 9 or 10 in a row at one point. In improving to 6-6 (and how many games have the Reds blown for him this year?) he struck out seven and walked just one. In the 8th and final inning for Bailey, he gassed Dodgers hitters to the tune of 97 MPH several times. He has an electric arm. If he ever could just sustain some consistency….

2. Jay Bruce – I kind of figured that Bruce would have a rebound performance of some type from Sunday’s game. He had a nice game hitting clean-up for the second game in a row by going 2 for 3 with a walk, and a great running catch in right field that kept the Reds ahead 3-2.

3. Devin Mesoraco -Two huge run-scoring hits and three big RBI on the night for Mesoraco. He’s only hitting .209 but I really love his swing. He’s going to develop into a really nice offensive catcher for Cincinnati. Huge swings last night. He has a nice, calm flat stroke and last night’s hits couldn’t have came in a bigger spot.

4. Todd Frazier - He doesn’t always get it done beautifully but the dude can just lay the game. I am gaining increasing amounts of faith in the Rutgers product. His swings on breaking stuff on the outer half is downright hideous, but the athlete in him keeps his head above water. He’s a winner. He knows he can play the game. He’ll get better too.

Great win heading into a holiday!

Filed Under: Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles Dodgers, west coast road trips Tagged With: , , ,

Game 29, 2012: Brewers rock Bailey & Reds 8-3

May 9, 2012 by Leave a Comment

[Box Score]

[Cincinnati.com] [Redleg Nation] [Brewers Mission 162]

Things started going badly in this one–again because of Homer Bailey’s inconsistencies.

He came out with 96 MPH stuff, some of the best velocity I’ve seen him have a in a long time and after retiring what seemed like the first two hitters of the game with ease, he came unraveled a little bit. He loaded the bases and Lucroy singled home a couple of runners and the route was on. It summed up Homer Bailey’s entire Cincinnati career. Come out with electric stuff, but for some reason you lack the ability to just get guys out and everything was labored.

After the Brewers loaded up the sacks again later in the game and Aramis Ramirez cleared then to make it 6-0, I decided it was time to head to the gym and prepare mentally for the loss. While I was on the elliptical for an hour I listened to Marty and when the Reds are losing Marty really loses focus. Bruce homered again to stretch his streak to 11 games. Brandon Phillips collected a few hits. But basically the Reds were blown out and failed to keep climbing above the .500 mark.

Making today’s afternoon delight of Johnny Cueto vs. Zach Greinke a huge contest.

Highlights:

Jay Bruce goes opposite field for his 10th home run of the year

Brandon Phillips, great grab over the shoulder

Full highlights

Potpourri:

-The Reds 8-3 loss in Milwaukee will mean little on May 8th of 2012 in baseball history. This will forever be the night that Josh Hamilton hit four home runs in Baltimore. It’s a more exclusive list than perfect games. And we are the franchise who traded that guy.

Although I briefly remember Mike Cameron and Carlos Delgado doing it; I remember Shawn Green and Mark Whiten’s historic nights well.

-Jay Bruce hit streak update: 11 games, 17 of 41 (.415), 7 HR, 14 RBI, 1.499 OPS during this streak.

Filed Under: Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers Tagged With: , , ,

Game 24, 2012: Cubs fail to play for 27 outs

May 4, 2012 by Leave a Comment

[Box Score]

[Cincinnati.com] [Mark Sheldon]

Frustrate you as they may, and they were frustrating for eight long innings with Ryan Dempster on the hill; there’s one thing you can say about the Reds. This group will force you to play for 27 outs, and if you don’t they’ll send you home losers.

The Reds entered the ninth inning trailing by a score of 3-0. They had just three hits on the day until that point. And then Carlos Marmol gave them the air supply they desperately needed.

He walked Willie Harris to lead off the ninth, which was a bad idea since Harris hasn’t collected a base-hit all season thus far. Joey Votto followed with a walk of his own. Brandon Phillips hit a ground ball to Ian Stewart, and the usually sound defense of the Cubs imploded. Stewart booted the ball and Harris scored. Jay Bruce followed with a sharp single. Ryan Ludwick walked to make it 3-2. Devin Mesoraco hit into a double play but the game was tied at 3-3.

The Reds found a way to win it in the 10th on a sacrifice fly by Scott Rolen that scored Zach Cozart. What should have been a 4-4 homestand became a 5-3 homestand. The Reds were back to .500 and the Cardinals which gave them renewed life.

The Reds knack for the comeback just might be their best quality. They had absolutely nothing yesterday and they still found a way to beat the opposition.

Highlights:

Homer Bailey’s 4th quality start in five outings

Starlin Castro’s first dinger of the year

Zach Cozart’s great diving stop

Rolen’s sac-fly to win it

Potpourri:

  • This was the first time in MLB history that two starting pitchers shared a birthday on the day of the game started. Bailey is now 26, while Dempter is 35.
  • I’m now getting old enough that I can remember games a full decade ago. Ten years ago to the day the Reds lost a game 6-1 in San Francisco. Their lineup went Larkin, Juan Encarnacion, Sean Casey, Dunn, Aaron Boone, Todd Walker, Austin Kearns, Corky Miller, and Jose Rijo started on the mound.
  • A decade ago to the day, Adam Dunn had 25 career home runs. Dunn now has 372 as of last evening, including this monster home run last night off Cleveland’s Dan Wheeler.
Filed Under: Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Game 19, 2012: Reds let one slip away via Angel Pagan

April 27, 2012 by Leave a Comment

[Box Score]

[Cincinnati.com] [Mark Sheldon]

This post should be about the great games of Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey. About how the Reds found a way to start a home stand with a sweep of a quality opponent.

Instead, it’s about a blown save by Sean Marshall and the most heartbreaking loss of the year.

Baseball is a funny game like that. And I think back to how many times poor snake-bitten Homer Bailey has had a game in which he had B-plus or A-minus stuff, pitched good enough to get the win, and yet had it stolen from him late on something freaky (in this case it was Marshall’s hanging curveball).

I liked the Reds match-up against Vogelsong a lot coming into the game. And they collected 12 hits. Three of them belonged to Jay Bruce. Just one of those days from Bruce that we’ve seen so many times where he gets one hit and then seems to put together a big day.

You have to look at things big-picture during baseball season, because if you’re looking micro instead of macro you’re going to piss yourself off. Taking two of three games is nice, and starting home-stand with a quality series victory like the Reds did over the Giants is positive. With the Astros coming to town over the weekend the Reds have a chance to really get rolling.

Of course this is coming from the guy who was texting friends ‘they won’t be under .500 again this season’ after the win a few nights ago over Barry Zito and the Giants.

Highlights:

Jay Bruce 2-run home run (4) gives Reds 4-2 lead

Homer Bailey was very good

Angel Pagan crushes dreams

Scott Rolen home run (2)

Song that should be played at loud-speakers at a stadium near you:

Filed Under: Cincinnati Reds, Heartbreak, San Francisco Giants Tagged With: , , , ,

Homer Bailey is Easy to Like, but Hard to Love

April 10, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Homer Bailey reminds me of one of those 1st round draft pick quarterbacks in the NFL who the fan base really likes as a person, but is simply playing out the string of their final year in the city. That’s how it is beginning to feel.

Not to say it can’t work out still, because it can. But Bailey missed a golden opportunity last night to make a statement about his 2012 season and he put the Reds in the season hole against the Cardinals by allowing four runs via the home run ball in the first inning of their 7-1 loss to St. Louis.

Looking at things on a higher level, the fan base in Cincinnati seems to genuinely really like Homer Bailey. We really want to see him succeed, maybe above anyone else in the starting rotation currently. There’s a little piece of us that dies with every non-quality start, with every sub-par season that Bailey seems to post.

And it just feels like what some scouts said about Bailey when he was drafted could end up being true–Bailey might end up succeeding in his career, but probably not for the team that drafted him. You don’t want to believe it, but you can’t help it. Things just seem somewhat star-crossed in Cincinnati for the 7th overall pick of the 2004 MLB draft.

Homer is likable. He’s a good old boy. He’s one of ‘us’. Grew up on the farm that Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Paul Janish, and the other Texas contingency did coming up through the minor leagues. By all accounts, he should be part of this nucleus. There’s a little bit of us all in Homer Bailey. We try and fail; try again, and still somehow manage to miss out on succeeding.

He’s bristled with pitching coaches, changed his ways and came back a more mature young man. Several members of the media have remarked on this, with Hal McCoy being one of the main ones.

We all want this guy to succeed so badly because of who he should have been all the way. In his prime at age 26, he should be one of the best pitchers in baseball by now. But he isn’t. And every time we get close to loving him (remember the last two months of 2009, anyone?) he gives us a reason that we can’t in the form of three first inning home runs. Or he walks the 8th hitter and allows a single to the pitcher. Or Pujols hits a grand slam off a reliever to blow Bailey’s win.

We all want to love Homer Bailey, but over six years we haven’t really gotten the chance to know Homer Bailey. He doesn’t really do Redsfest. He doesn’t endorse anything. He’s quiet and he takes the ball every fifth day without any eyebrow raising quotes. Yet there’s still something we really all like about this kid.

The sands of time are running through the hourglass for Bailey in Cincinnati. He’s got to pitch better very soon in order to slow them down. This was supposed to be the year. There’s time left for Bailey to succeed in Cincinnati. But, like some of the wild game that Bailey likes to hunt in the off-season; it’s becoming more endangered by the day.

Filed Under: Cincinnati Reds, St. Louis Cardinals, we really do love this guy Tagged With:

10 Bold Predictions for 2012: The Cincinnati Reds make the NLCS

March 28, 2012 by Leave a Comment

As part of our preview for the upcoming 2012 season, we’ll be doing a 10 Bold Predictions for 2012 series that will be featured between now and Opening Day. Our fifth installment of this prediction series is that the Cincinnati Reds are one of two NLCS representatives in 2012.

There’s people out there that won’t want to believe me–but my wife will serve as my witness on this (she would NEVER lie for me). I have been talking about the 2012 Cincinnati Reds making a possible World Series run for several years now.

The night my wife will remember me saying it was when the outs were starting to melt away in that NLDS game three versus the Phillies back in 2010. As I sat there in the last row of the stadium with her, I said “we’re really going to get swept. It’s really going to end like this”. I was right. The Reds got shutout by Cole Hamels on a night when he had his best stuff. But I made a prediction I have felt so strongly about for so long.

“Mark my words, this team will be back. They’ll miss out on the playoffs in 2011 and then they’re going to come roaring back and go after the whole thing in 2012. That’s been the year all along: 2012″.

Now, because she’s a woman and things like that aren’t important to her she wouldn’t be able to recite my exact prediction. But she can attest to the fact that her husband has never felt more strongly about something happening in sports than the Cincinnati Reds impending 2012 run to the World Series. This is because I’ve also reminded her countless times over the last year.

And I’ve hedged my prediction some. I don’t think they’re going to the World Series. Our season predictions won’t go up until next week on this site but I still don’t fully know who this mystery opponent who will knock off the Reds in the 2012 NLCS will even be yet. But someone’s knocking them off. All I know is they’re going to get that far, and they’re not going to make the World Series. And I feel like it’s going to be in six games that the NLCS lasts. Just enough so that you have some hopes and dreams of the Reds really playing for the whole thing. But they’re going to fall tragically short like all of our heroes eventually do. And that’s because they’re my team. That’s why they’re not going to the World Series. But mark my words, before this thing gets completely blown up and the Reds nucleus as you know it is disbanded, they’re going to take you on a ride that you haven’t been on in a long, long time.

I love the make up of this roster. I think there are any number of players who could go from respectable Major League professionals to star pretty easily because they have the pedigree and I think they’ve got the ability to truly be more than solid. Many of these guys moved up through the minor league system together and have grown up as ballplayers together. The chemistry in this organization with this group of players is not overstated as it so often is around baseball. These guys like each-other and have a strong clubhouse. They’ve also all reached that ‘peak ‘and ‘prime’ age around the same time. When you get several guys who have career years together you see teams come out of nowhere and take off.

Last year was absolutely painful for my heart and huge hit to my mental health at times. Just writing on this blog each day was a challenge because I was lamenting the fact it was baseball season as the Reds floundered their way through 162. Sometimes in baseball that just happens. And sometimes in life things happen for a reason that you never come to understand. And the reason the Reds of 2011 were so bad was so that they could fly under the radar in 2012. The baseball Gods made me purge my joys last season so that it could be a summer long party in 2012.

Aside from the Reds being able to once again sneak up on some teams quietly–something they lacked the ability to do from game one in 2011–it’s been the perfect storm off-season with some of the things that have happened. Let’s examine some of the things that have taken place that are going to allow the Reds to make a run in 2012:

  1. Reds trade for Matt Latos. Alright, he’s not an ace in my opinion yet. But it’s another lottery ticket thrown in the raffle of guys who could be aces for the Reds. And I still see Cueto, Bailey, and now Latos as guys who could have that type of ‘stopper’ season for the Reds. Give me the ball on day five and let me go get you a ballgame and end this slide or keep this streak going.
  2. Albert Pujols leaves the Cardinals for the Angels. Why don’t you do me a favor, look up what Albert Pujols did against the Reds over his career (Actually, let me do that for you. 172 GP, .350, 46 HR, 143 RBI, 10 steals/zero caught stealing, 92 BB, 50 K’s, .430/.641/1.072). Look, I’ll miss seeing the guy’s pure talent a few times a summer, but let’s get serious I can do without him making me miserable in the form of game winning grand slams and such. AL West foes, you enjoy that.
  3. Prince Fielder signs with the Detroit Tigers. Maybe the second greatest offensive lethal weapon in the National League, and he’s leaving the NL Central too! Now this is just gravy. People forget he’ll just be 28 years old this season, he is in his prime years and he will still torture pitching staffs for about 4 or 5 more seasons before he’s ‘getting old’ or no matter how big that spare tire gets.
  4. Ryan Braun is suspended for PED use for 40 games. Yea. Shit. Damn you formality. This would have been the nail in the Brewers coffin, trust me. They lucked out here.
  5. Chris Carpenter is out 3 to 4 months with a bulging disk. Chris Carpenter scares me. He’s fiery, he eats innings, you can hang a few runs on him in the first inning of a game and then he one hits you the rest of the way. He’s the type of catalyst ace that few guys around the big leagues truly are. This is a huge void for the Cardinals. And I found out they’re going to Opening Day start Kyle Lohse. A man doesn’t deserve such a life of luxury folks. I am that man.
  6. Adam Wainwright returns from Tommy-John surgery.People want to talk about Wainwright being the sleeper of the year. Look, he’s good and I have no doubts he’ll return to his previous levels of performance. But give me one guy who came back and was his dominant old self his first half season back from Tommy-John surgery. There aren’t any. Reds luck out again here. I’m still warm and fuzzy inside with memories of that February day last year.
  7. Theo Epstein got his hands on the Cubs a bit too late. Theo will turn the Cubbies around but it’s going to take time. Are they still employing the likes of Ryan Dempster and Alfonso Soriano? Bryan LaHair at first base? It’s going to be a fun season of making fun of Cubs fans again.
  8. The Phillies are a mess. I expect a regression from Cliff Lee. Roy Halladay has been nothing if not touch and go this spring. Jimmy Rollins is getting old. Chase Utley is hurt. Ryan Howard is hurt. The Phillies do not scare me. Not in the slightest.
  9. The Reds sign Sean Marshall. This guy is like the nastiest lefty in baseball. He’s not gonna crap out like Ricky Rincon did when the Indians went out and tried to make a splash in getting a nasty lefty to bolster a great pen. He’s going to get first dibs on the closer role, and I think he’s going to have a fine audition.

I could keep going, but these are all things that have made it a wonderful off-season towards building my case for the Reds run to the 2012 NLCS.

We led off the prediction series by telling you that Jay Bruce was going to be the 2012 MVP. But now for some of the unheralded guys who will pay off huge for the Redlegs in 2012. Chris Heisey, Homer Bailey, Ryan Ludwick, and the rebound of guys like Scott Rolen and Drew Stubbs will pay off for the Reds. Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto will play their usual role.

You look in the pen and the Reds have some serious firepower. Jose Arredondo is a year into his own Tommy-John recovery, and the Reds have Bill Bray, Nick Masset, Aroldis Chapman, Marshall, and some other very capable arms that will be down in that bullpen. They’re deep. Especially if Ryan Madson hadn’t gotten hurt. But we’re here to focus on why this prediction will come true.

The Reds are about to give you the finest season since 1990, if you can just make it until October. This is going to be the year and I want you to remember where you heard it. Just don’t expect too much ultimately. I’ll sign up for an NLCS run and take my chances from there right now.

Filed Under: Cincinnati Reds Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Game 51, 2011: Phillies 10, Reds 4

May 27, 2011 by Leave a Comment

[Box Score]

[Cincinnati.com]

Observations:

Remember Daryl Thompson? One of the last times we saw him at the big league level was at Old Yankee Stadium. He got the win that day. We never really figured that he would re-surface at the big league level with the Reds. He did, and yesterday he recorded some counting stats that counted for the wrong values.

The Reds fought back valiantly from a 4-0 hole against Cliff Lee–and when you hang 10 hits on Cliff Lee it should be good enough to win–only so Daryl Thompson could allow 5 walks and 5 earned runs and factor in as the loser.

Homer Bailey also gave up four runs in four innings before leaving the game due to a shoulder spasm. This was just a horrible ending to another horrible series in Philadelphia. It always ends badly when the Reds play the Phillies and to think that Shane Victorino wasn’t even part of this series.

The way the Reds bats hit the last two days against Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee is honestly a pretty big testament as to how good of hitters they are as a team. No one gets to Lee and Halladay like that. Miguel Cairo had three hits in the clean-up spot for goodness sakes. But the Reds pitching staff as a whole is in shambles. This is not the way it was drawn up.

The Reds need some big time heroics or something that changes things up and they need it now. Calling up Todd Frazier for one at-bat to begin the Phillies series wasn’t the jab in the arm they needed to remedy this losing bug. Something big needs to happen; whether that is the release of a veteran or something in the way of a trade. They cannot afford to wait until July. Things might be out of reach by then.

I find it irony that the Reds are wasting the greatest hot stretch of Jay Bruce’s career by going 1-8. This has the feel of 2002-2009 to it. It wasn’t supposed to be this way. They’re a game over .500 now and heading to Atlanta for three. They’re in third place. It’s time to circle the wagons boys.

Top Plays:

Bruce’s 14th homer off Cliff Lee ties the game at 4-4

Cliff Lee’s two-run double

Paul Janish gets a big hit, thanks to some high socks

Homer Bailey, hurt again

Filed Under: Afternoon Baseball, Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies Tagged With: , , , ,

Game 41, 2011: Reds 7, Cubs 4

May 17, 2011 by Leave a Comment

Last night felt like a night in which the Reds luck was going to run out a little bit, but they scored seven runs in the 6th inning and showed why Carlos Zambrano is no longer worth giving away starts and innings on any fantasy baseball team. The win was the Reds fourth in a row at home.

With the win, the Cincinnati Reds of 2011 are now one game better than the 2010 Reds were at this point.

Homer Bailey fought through tough mound conditions, loading the bases in the 1st inning with walks, and overall not having his best stuff. It’s the type of game where in the past, he would have lost. Bailey is a lot more cerebral on the mound this year and it shows. He knows when he needs a strikeout. He knows when he has to throw a ground ball. He knows when he can afford to give up a fly ball. Carlos Pena touched him up for a long one to make it 4-0 Cubs, but it was Bailey’s ability to limit damage in spots that allowed the Reds to hang around and come back and win this one.

[Cincinnati.com] [Box Score]

A lot was made after the game of Johnny Gomes being knocked down by Chicago reliever Marcus Mateo and then getting off the dirt two pitches later to fly one into the seats in right center field. It would definitely be big for Johnny Gomes to get going and be a run producer in the lineup for the Reds which has to be why Dusty Baker is giving the veteran so much rope when it would be easy to go to Chris Heisey as the everyday left fielder or a platoon of Gomes, Heisey and Fred Lewis.

Jay Bruce had his second multi-hit game in a row. He started 0 for 2 off Zambrano but then singled and doubled, scored and run and drove in his 13th run of the month.

The big moment of the game for me was when Scott Rolen hit a ball hard and back into left field and Alfonso Soriano had his almost daily ‘woopsies’ out in left-field. The misplay allowed the Reds to take the lead, and they wouldn’t look back.

Bailey improves to 3-0 for the first time in his career. This is success that really has the chance to be sustained. Bailey is pitching really well, and he’s on a truly good team. A team that; as they did in this game, can dig him out of small holes should he lack stuff on certain nights.

Clearly, the Reds are surging right now since getting pitching back from injury like Bailey and Johnny Cueto. The lineup continues to score at a consistent clip. Francisco Cordero locked down his 8th save in pitching in his 4th straight 9th inning.

Top Plays:

Stubbs throws a seed to nail Alfonso Soriano at home plate

Johnny Gomes goes oppo-long ball

Another big hit for Joey Votto (RBI single)
Potpourri:

You want proof that I’m cursed in fantasy baseball? Here’s a screen grab of my box score from my 10-team keeper roto-league last night. This is the night that officially put me on tilt:

What the shot doesn’t include is sub-par outings from Tim Lincecum, Josh Johnson, and a blown save by Jordan Walden. The 1 for 28 actually grew to 1 for 31 last night before Mike Stanton added another hit and Jason Kubel got a mercy single late in Seattle. I ended up 3 for 39.

Filed Under: Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds Tagged With: , , , , , , , , ,
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