In baseball handicapping, you might have heard the term “get the best number”. This is crucial to eliminating juice and maximizing value over the course of a season.
How I perceive this term is when you wake up in the morning; or you go to bed at night and you feel you have a lean; a gut feeling, or a strong suspicion that a team is going to win the next day, start looking at the lines at several different casinos and ‘line shop’. Basically see what the consensus line is and gauge the value. If you think a home team is going to win the game the next day and they’re sitting there as a +125 the night before, you might want to think about grabbing them right then.
Thought process should be as simple as ‘see the ball, hit the ball’.
1) Identify the right side.
2) Get them at the best number possible.
If you are betting against a team like the New York Yankees that the public loves, you’re going to maybe want to get on them early. On most nights in a year like this, it’s common to see the Yankees climb from -145 all the way into the -170 territory where most value is gone from the line.
Betting on the same team a lot during the season allows you to kind of feel or learn where the best spot for them is for you to make money at. Teams like the Pittsburgh Pirates are a pretty good value team if you can get them anywhere from -105 to -120. That’s a spot you can make money on. Even if you don’t love them in a matchup, but you’re familiar with them and you can get them in a good value spot; it might be a good place to take a shot.
If you have a big dog and you’re sure you want them, start watching the line the night before. If you see it start to drop from +190 to +180, lock it in. If it’s showing tendency to rise, just let it float and see what it carries to. You might end up making an extra 30 cents on your dollar if you correctly line shop.
There are great sites all over the internet to get Daily MLB Picks at as well as sites like Don Best where you can watch the lines at several different Vegas casinos and online sports books. You can actually see the sharp and public action take place if you watch this at the right time during the day or when a line is posted. Then you’ll know if your gut feeling is probably the right side.