If you’re wondering what kind of year it’s going to be for a team, you can take a quick look at a team’s over/under win total projection at the sportsbooks and get a decent idea at what is reality.
The Reds over/under total for this year according to Bovada is 84.5 currently. In betting, this is what you call a damn good line. I think the experts did a good job with this as they obviously do. You can disagree with it, you can be a homer, you can denounce it all you want.
I think the truth of the matter is the Reds are more likely to be under this number than they are over it. If they’re over, it will be by winning about 85. The most likely scenario – and this is my gut feeling which is all too often correct with the Reds – is that they’re right around this number. I see a season with 83, or 84, or 85ish wins for the Reds in 2014. That amount of wins isn’t going to be good enough to sneak into the playoffs. It will be a competitive season where you can’t complain about too much, but never really get excited. It might feel a lot like 2011.
When I saw this number and I examined it across my emotions through the offseason, I said to myself that it looked pretty damn accurate.