Examining MLB Futures Odds


As much as I like to gamble, and as good as I can be at forecasting the sport of baseball; I’ve never been able to talk myself into laying money on a team to win the World Series or the pennant or anything of the sort. I think the reason for it is I’ve seen too much baseball. Too many things have to truly align. No matter how good a team really is; that team will need a fair degree of luck to simply reach those heights. When I start thinking about that, it scares me away.

Now, one of the MLB futures odds that I do like to look at every year are things like the NL and AL home run champion and the Cy Young in respective leagues. That’s something I feel like a handicapper can have an outside shot at really nailing on a gut feeling.

As for how the futures look right now in baseball, here’s a few highlights:

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers are 7/1 to win the World Series as of today. Throw a $100 on the Dodgers, and if everything goes right in October and Yasiel Puig is spraying Clayton Kershaw with champagne and riding Tommy Lasorda around the clubhouse like a midget, and you’ll walk away with $700. Not a great payoff for a lotto ticket. I feel like you’re better off taking that $100 and parlaying it on three teams to win on one given night. The pain and anguish is much quicker that way instead of a long and agonizing crawl to your loss.
  • The Detroit Tigers are not far behind at 8/1. I feel that the Tigers are loaded enough, sure. But a gut feeling tells me they’re not winning it all in their first year under Brad Ausmus.
  • The best value may very well come from teams like the St. Louis Cardinals or Washington Nationals at 11/1, or the Boston Red Sox at 12/1, though I don’t feel a repeat.
  • The New York Yankees equal their rivals at 12/1.
  • The Cincinnati Reds check in at 20/1 to win their first title since 1990. Vegas sees their chances equal with that of the Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Angels and San Francisco Giants.
  • The longest odds? The Houston Astros are 250/1. Please save your money.

As for the Home Run and Cy Young Odds, those aren’t out yet (boo). I’ll give you my early favorites to take home the crowns though – and this is subject to change obviously between now and April.

NL: Bryce Harper, Paul Goldschmidt, Jay Bruce

AL: Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder

NL CY: Stephen Strasburg

AL CY: Justin Verlander

It will be interesting to see where the odds come in on these players as the season draws closer.