A Stroke of Genius with the Grill Man

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In the offseason I added Jason Grilli on virtually every fantasy team because I knew of the stuff he had. I knew he would be dominant. I knew he would be the best closer in baseball. If nothing else, this post is just confirmation that yes; at one moment in time my stroke of genius was at least correct.

A lot of other guys who are stuck on name brands were busy grabbing the likes of Josh Beckett, Joel Hanrahan, Jesus Montero and Mike Fiers in unlucky round 13. That’s when I gave Grilli a home, about five rounds later than he deservedly should have been packing his bags. Just brilliant if I do say so myself. I got more props for a late-round grab of Sergio Santos. That’s how little people respected Grilli coming into this season – but fortunate for me I was not one of those people.

A post over at FanGraphs today documents how dominant Jason Grilli has been. This has been awesome to watch.

The Anatomy of a Tony Perkis Fantasy Baseball Trade

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Tony Perkis offers:
Cory Lidle
Rob Deer
Lance Berkman Pubic Hair
Round 114 pick

Tony Perkis would like to trade for:
Prince Fielder
Troy Tulowitzki
Original piece of antique family heir loom artwork
Your last pair of shoes
Round 2 pick

I think I’m falling for Carlos Gomez

CaGomez

Playing Fantasy Baseball can cause you to follow and fall for some strange figures during the course of a Major League season. Almost a year ago at this time, I thought that player was Dayan Viciedo.

The history books will prove that Viciedo was not a fastball demolishing monster, but rather a player who just got extremely hot for a few weeks in May 2012. But I think Carlos Gomez is something different than just a player who is on a hot streak.

A couple weeks ago Michael Bourn went down with a hand injury and when Jason Heyward hit the disabled list with appendicitis, I was in dire need for an outfielder that could fill in. I took a very late round flyer on Carlos Gomez because I liked his power/speed mix. He has the ability to hit 20 home runs and steal 40 bags. Milwaukee’s Miller Park is an underrated launching pad that doesn’t get mentioned with the likes of Coors, Great American and New Yankee Stadium.

In Gomez’s first nine games played this year he was hitting .162 with no walks. On April 14th – the first game of a doubleheader against the Cardinals – Gomez started on a tear. Into my fantasy lineup he went, not by choice but by circumstance.

Since that April 14th day Gomez has posted a slash line of .509/.576/.912, and the player who walked just 20 times all of last season has compiled six walks. He’s homered five times and stolen six bases. He’s collected 29 hits. He is a monster. He should replace that nameplate on his back that reads ‘Gomez’ with ‘Better than Desmond Jennings and B.J. Upton’ but it wouldn’t fit on the back of the jersey. And he likely came to you ten rounds later than those players due to bad fantasy owners who draft guys based on name and not on the things they’re capable of.

He is a Latin player with the swag to match. When he hits a home run, he flips the bat like it’s a walk-off job. He plays with fire. When he makes an out he drops four letter F-bombs with cunning regularity. He is every fantasy owner’s dream player, and I could care less if Michael Bourn takes a summer long sabattical.

Carlos Gomez has the look of a superstar. If it all comes crashing down, this is a hot streak that hits throughout the course of the season that did not go without notice or appreciation. And that’s why fantasy baseball is great. It provides us with the most unlikely of heroes. It piques our interest in the most obscure sorts. Like Milwaukee’s flashy 6th-hole hitter.

But for at least a three week period to begin the 2013 season, Carlos Gomez was on top of the world. And no one can take it away from either of us.

So, Bryce Harper Got Hurt Tonight

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There goes months of analyzing data and building a fantasy team I was set to roll with for nine months. All that hard work, all down the drain.

My wife is in her hometown visiting family this week. When she called to say goodnight I had little to say. I am beginning to think I should quit following baseball and should take up a new hobby like Star Wars or Dungeons and Dragons or something.

Why me.

UPDATE: Sigh of relief?

Remembering when ESPN wrecked Fantasy Baseball

I woke up this morning to find that Yahoo Fantasy Sports had taken away my stats from the Cardinals v. Pirates rain-out last night, but didn’t give me credit for Doug Fister’s win in Seattle or Bobby Parnell’s flame-throwing inning and a third in last night’s Colorado blizzard night-cap. These were stats that should have had me tied for first place at the end of last night. It got me thinking a little bit. It had me revisiting a nightmare.

It was just a few days over six years ago that ESPN Fantasy Baseball caught some kind of bug that wiped out the first two weeks of fantasy baseball action in 2007.

Honestly, I decided that day I was done with ESPN Fantasy Baseball forever. All the Talented Mr. Roto chats in the world couldn’t make up for the fact that they erroneously wouldn’t be able to count stats that occurred in the first two weeks of the season. They announced every league member would be starting from scratch after they fixed the glitch two weeks into the season. It was horrific.

Hopefully Yahoo can right the ship. There were some suspended games and rain-outs across the country last night, so you have to give them the benefit of the doubt. Let’s just hope they don’t end up like ESPN did in 2007. You’re the largest sports empire in the world, and you can’t get your fantasy games statistics right? Unacceptable.

 

Goodbye, Adam Dunn

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If you look back through the archives of this blog, you’ll read a lot of good times for us provided by The Big Donkey Adam Dunn. He was the original Godfather of Diamond Hoggers. He was a key cog on our fantasy teams from about 2002 until 2008. He probably gave us anywhere from 250 to 300 fantasy home runs, and was the reason we won the home run title every year.

This season, we took an unexpected late round flier on Dunn to provide some power. And at this time of year with guys dropping like flies and pitchers that need to be streamed, tough decisions needed to be made. Dunn went 0 for 3 with a measly hit-by-pitch tonight in Toronto, dropping his season average down to .128 with just two home runs.

We added Brandon Moss. It’s kind of like that scene in Goodfellas when Pauly hands Henry $300 after all they’ve been through together. Three Ben Franklins for a lifetime of service. For all Adam Dunn has done for us, the guy we drop him for for the final time is Brandon Moss.

We’ll never own Adam Dunn again in fantasy baseball. It’s over. It’s the end of an era. It looks like twilight is settling in on an incredible power hitter’s career. It’s become painful to watch him swing and we’re moving on.

And if the ride ends soon, what a ride it’s been. We’re not sure there’s been a bigger Adam Dunn fan on the planet than us – this is just business. Like a cowboy riding off into the sunset for the last time; we tip our cap to you, big Texan. Hit those 92 more dingers and hang them up.

MUHUHAHAHAHAHAHAHA….. MUHUAHAHAHAHAHAHA

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Now you’re probably wondering why I’m rejoicing about a the unfortunate news that Jose Reyes won’t be going near a baseball field for a while – unless it’s wheeling his chair into the Blue Jays dugout.

We never want to see a player get hurt, but when it comes to fantasy baseball; there will be casualties. If it’s going to happen, you want it to affect the one owner in your league who thinks he’s going to come out on top.

My team is surging, and he gets to pick from the likes of Josh Rutledge, J.J. Hardy (waiver out for him if you want him), Alexei Ramirez or Marco Scutaro. Yea, I would say Reyes helps you more than those guys.

Tough break. Er, sprain. Meh, no matter. You think you’re winning your league with Reyes on the shelf? NO WAY JOSE! MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Now, THIS is how you get a leg up on the competition!

Yu Better Not let me down, you 4.19 BB/9 SOB

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It will either make me feel the part of fantasy baseball genius or fantasy fool.

In my big money, bigger pride fantasy baseball rotisserie league I made a trade last night for Matt Moore to add to my staff that will already feature my keeper Chris Sale. Today, I dealt a pair of round 11 draft picks that I acquired throughout last season for Yu Darvish.

I wanted the guy last year and couldn’t get it done. After intense study of his Fangraphs page, I’ve seen enough. I don’t like the walks, but I’m willing to bargain with the guy. A couple of projection systems have him dropping his walks per nine total to the 3.5 range. One of these guys includes my offense-happy friend Bill James. One system even had Darvish under 3.00 per nine.

I am counting heavily on Yu this season. It won’t be the first time a well laid plan didn’t execute but I’m all in and firing every bullet in this league until the end.

His Name is Dayan Viciedo and he Swallows Fastballs Whole

Dayan Viciedo: mi amor, mi vida, mi alegría.

For every Jimmy Rollins, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton who under performs and succeeds in embarrassing me; this guy makes up for it.

In yesterday’s White Sox win he collected three more knocks. On May 14th, ‘The Tank’ went on a league wide assault that’s seen him hit .444 with 8 bombs and 23 RBI. His slash line reads .453/.857/1.310 in that time.

I might not win every fantasy league that I’m in; but I am confident in my ability to each and every year find a guy like this who destroys the league on his way into the proverbial fantasy circle of trust. Last year it was Mike Morse. A few years ago Nelson Cruz. This year, I’ve once again got the gem on my squads.

Thank you Dayan, you fastball pulverizing monster; for being my fantasy baseball salvation.

Gabby Sanchez says I’m destined for Fantasy ROTO Greatness

I wasn’t just sucking up, either. I really do believe the guy can flat out hit. I owned him last year as well.

Hey @, you think I can squeeze 25 to 30 bombs out of you this year? I do. If it happens, just call me a #rotochamp
@DiamondHoggers
Diamond Hoggers

If I end up being able to put Sanchez in that second UTIL spot, it’s all over folks.

Fantasy Draft in Canton 2012 Recap

(This is the fantasy guide I was using. It was for auction draft strategy only. And I thought I was completely prepared.)

I don’t want to sit here and brag about my roster and sing the praises of the perfect draft like I did last year. I’ve said before on these very pages that 2011 was proof to me that you can’t judge fantasy teams on paper. You just can’t. Guys who don’t look all that appealing (I wanted nothing to do with Lance Berkman this season) can sometimes go off and pitching staffs who are full of “aces” end up floundering out. You just have to go out and play the games.

Teams also seem to look more stacked in a 10-team league. Play in a 12 or 20 team fantasy league and you won’t feel like you are loaded with studs or names.

That said, I like how yesterday went. I built the kind of team that I wanted to build. I went in prepared, I had some guys fall to me, and I made a few unique plays and calculated risks. I’m ready for this season to begin and see how these guys stack up. I think it would take an extreme run of bad luck for these guys to finish 9th out of 10 again, but never say never. I think I’m going to be closer to winning the thing than the basement.

Here’s my 2012 squad for the Summer of Sizemore League:

Catcher: Matt Wieters
First Base: Billy Butler, Gaby Sanchez
Second Base: Brandon Phillips, Danny Espinoza
Third Base: Brett Lawrie
Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins, Jhonny Peralta,
Outfield: Jason Heyward, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Upton, Jose Tabata, Ben Revere, Bryce Harper, Michael Bourn

Analysis: You always hear about mixing in solid pros with big time youth prospects. I’ve sprinkled them all over here. The one thing I’m happy with was landing Wieters later in the draft than I thought he would be available. He’s not Johnny Bench, but I think the guy is going to be an All-Star caliber guy and it’s now or never for him. And I have another guy who it’s now or never for most likely, Jason Heyward. I probably reached on Brett Lawrie (2nd round), but I had to have him and I wouldn’t have caught him a round later I don’t believe.

Phillips and Rollins fall in the Sabathia category. Guys I never own but seem to always watch other more successful teams enjoy all season long. Now I suppose these two and Justin Upton could get hurt and I could watch this team (without one projected .300 hitter on some sites) really flame out. But I don’t think so. I’m looking at things positively and I think I got Billy Butler the year he hits 30 home runs and becomes a household name. I think I got Heyward, Wieters, and Lawrie for their breakout years. Upton and Stanton, welcome to Superstardom. Oh, and a signature move was picking up Bourn (whom I traded down the stretch last year for that Bryce Harper kid) to help in the SB category.

I have Ben Revere as a break-out candidate for those of you that want sleepers this season. Revere is going .315/40 stolen bases. And if he doesn’t, Tabata will.

Starting Pitching: CC Sabathia, Josh Johnson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Cory Luebke, Trevor Cahill, Jair Jurrjens

Analysis: I always stay away from Sabathia because in my mind he’s always “old”. He’s got a lot of mileage on him and every year he helps my opponent get his 200 K’s and around 20 wins. Need Josh Johnson or Ubaldo Jimenez to return to form. Really happy I ended up with Cory Luebke but I’m scared last year was an aberration. If I get anything in the way of a Cy Young type year out of Jurrjens or Cahill like they’ve done in their careers, look out league.

Relief Pitching: Jason Motte, Ryan Madson, Carlos Marmol, Addison Reed, David Hernandez

Analysis: I love this group. I’m high on Motte because the Cardinals are going to win some ballgames this year and I think he’s got the stuff to strike a lot of people out. That seemed to be the theme here–I wanted guys who strike a lot of people out. Also, I have the handcuffs–or at least the keys to the handcuffs in Arizona. I’m looking at guys who if they aren’t closer, the next best thing. Hernandez is going to be the incumbent. I have a strong feeling about J.J. Putz this year losing the closer job. A really strong feeling.

Preparing for Maryvale Martycohn & Fantasy Baseball War

Tomorrow is my 2nd fantasy baseball draft for the ‘Summer of Sizemore’ league in Canton, Ohio. If you read about last year’s episode–that team finished 9th out of 10. It was embarrassing, frustrating, traumatizing disaster for me. Everything went wrong from Adam Dunn to Hanley Ramirez to Josh Johnson to Jason Heyward to Pedro Alvarez to Chase Utley to Joakim Soria to everything in between. I came away that day feeling like I had constructed one of the finest drafts that I’ve ever assembled and I ended up barley avoiding the league’s basement.

My struggle was also a testament to the quality of the league. And in that league, one man reigns supreme.

In the move Gran Torino, Clint Eastwood said it best:

“Ever noticed how sometimes, you come across somebody you shouldn’t have fucked with?”

I’ve played fantasy baseball since 1999. On average I’ve been in about three ROTO style leagues a year. I would guess I’ve tangled with some 300 fantasy baseball owners give or take a few. In Summer of Sizemore there’s a guy–we’ll call him Maryvale Martycohn–who has won the league just about every year and finally finished 2nd to his brother in our league last year. He’s one of the best, if not the best I’ve ever seen at this. He has the equation figured out. Everything he does seems to work.

He waiver wires low profile guys I consider to be trash. Said player ends up providing Maryvale with his best 4 to 6 weeks of his season. For every 2011 Mike Morse I find–and I am always confident in my ability to find guys like that every single year–Maryvale will find three to four guys you wrote off as waiver wire to ride to similar production over the course of several months.

This draft, and Maryvale have been lurking in the back of my mind all week long. While I was on the phone making sales calls. While I drove home from work. I knew I had an exam coming, and I needed to put in my time studying. I needed to prepare to run down the best I’ve ever came across.

A couple of things on that; for all of the strategy you might consider and employ, there is a fair degree of luck involved. There’s also no sense in cramming for this exam. You know what you know, and there’s not a lot you’re going to learn that doesn’t already exist in the fantasy baseball compartment in your subconscious mind. Maryvale has a recipe that’s worked against this group of guys, and I need to find the secret ingredient.

These players are merely assets I have no emotional value towards. I will only ride them so long as they provide me some value. As I sit here tonight and I stare at these endless names on spreadsheets and jump through one FanGraphs rabbit hole to another, I know that the answer I’m looking for will likely elude me before the hands of time arrive at launch time.

But I’ve got a feeling this year. I’m not due as bad of luck as I had last year, and I’m going to find the next coveted gem this year on that waiver wire. I’ve been doing this all my life. I know it, I live it. I am not the salesmen I pretend to be. I was born to run you down, Maryvale. And this fate awaits us both tomorrow.

And I’m Now Slightly Obsessed with Auction Fantasy Drafts

I had a colleague at work who was nice enough to get me involved in a fantasy league over at FanGraphs. I’ve been in dozens of fantasy leagues through the year of all shapes and sizes, but this time one thing was different. It was an auction draft format. Each owner in this 12-team league has $400 of spending cap money to fill 40 roster spots. On the roster, 24 of those spots are MLB players and 16 of them are prospects or minor leaguers.

I didn’t know what to expect when I checked into the auction draft last week. I would like to mandate anyone that’s never done an auction style format to please get involved in a league that does this soon. If you’re a die-hard fantasy baseball geek like I am, you haven’t been treated to the full service fantasy yet.

I thought I was going to be conservative. While this was my first auction draft–I wanted to treat it as a learning experience for when real coin was on the line. A few players in, someone nominated Albert Pujols. Everyone had the chance to bid, and suddenly I had spent $62 of my available $400 for Pujols. I felt like Arte Moreno. Only more used. And I was the one at the controls who could not flip the switch and control my inhibitions.

Next order of business: snag Joey Bats at a decent price.

Just paid $62 and $44 for Pujols and Joey Bats in the @ auction draft. #uhoh #400dollarsalarycap
@DiamondHoggers
Diamond Hoggers

I had two players for the small price for $106 flat. Over 25% of my cap, gone on two guys. Best imaginary $106 a man had ever spent. This is going to be fun.

A thought entered my mind, albeit only for a moment: get some arms. But wait–someone had nominated Jay Bruce. I hit the ‘oh shit’ button. I had to do something. The action was fast and furious. It was like sitting at a poker table in one of the nice rooms in Vegas. People were just throwing chips and shit everywhere. Sometimes you panic and throw some of your own in and call just because it’s all happening so fast. I threw some chips in.

Just snagged @ for $35 in my @ auction draft....
@DiamondHoggers
Diamond Hoggers

I spent the same on Bruce as another owner did for Josh Hamilton. And two dollars less than I got Jered Weaver for. I overpaid mightily. But I had to own Jay Bruce in this league. He’s like a good luck charm. Plus I resisted the urge to overspend for Mike Stanton and Jason Heyward like I wanted. I owed this to myself, didn’t I?

Next, Brandon Phillips and Ben Zobrist came off the board to me for $28 a piece. What the Hell am I going to do with two second basemen? Compulsive buys for two players I have an emotional attachment to, but not necessarily any given need for in this league. But wait! There’s a UTIL spot, and Zoby plays outfield. All was well again for 25 seconds.

My buy of the night came when I landed Zach Greinke for $22. My colleague texted me ‘nice buy on Zach’. It made it all worth it. I was hooked right then, but as you might imagine with me it wasn’t all roses.

Just got Joe Mauer for $14, b/c he's listed as "Jake Mauer" #steal
@DiamondHoggers
Diamond Hoggers

I had heisted Mauer for just $14. Some owners were going nuts. And some were laughing at me. I had bid $14 on “Jake” Mauer. A glitch in the Ottoneu software had him as the only Mauer listed when one of the owners when to nominate. A few of the guys too it to $12, and I bit hard at the ‘+$2′ button. I was the proud owner of Jake Mauer. A visit to that very Wikipedia page and I suddenly had realized the nightmare I had found myself involved in. I owned a piece of garbage who was retired and shouldn’t even be available. Jake Mauer seemed to snicker at me in his Wiki photo. He was like Joe after a week’s supply of meth.

I was pissed.

"@ where Jake Mauer happens"
@DiamondHoggers
Diamond Hoggers

It was gluttony at it’s finest.  How could I be so stupid? I wanted to sulk but there was no time for that. I needed to get my sea legs back and cut my losses. I needed cheap WHIP and K’s.

@ just paid $6 for David Hernandez....
@DiamondHoggers
Diamond Hoggers

From there I landed Pedro Alvarez for a paltry two dollars and I found my catcher.

@ I just nabbed you for $8 buddy
@DiamondHoggers
Diamond Hoggers

Arencibia was coming home with me. A few more players were nominated, and still not sure what my strategy was I was down to around $110 in money and still needing to find about 30 players. My work was cut out for me. And then we had to decide to end the draft at midnight because it’s a free fantasy league, we were a fourth of the way done and we all had to return to our cubes at work in the morning.

Going to bed. Nightmares of paying $4 for Robert Andino & $14 for @ in my auction draft will surely follow.
@DiamondHoggers
Diamond Hoggers

I wondered if the unresponsive Rickey Romero had seen my tweet. It felt good. I wondered if Robert Andino had twitter, but I didn’t look. I was tired. There was more work to be done at a later unspecified date that I had lived to fight.

I’m going to get stomped in this league. But I had learned that I need to be in a big time auction draft every year following to feel complete.

Why I can’t trade Mike Stanton for Jay Bruce

Jay Bruce is my favorite player and the Godfather of Diamond Hoggers. Often times when I am in a fantasy league where the participants know me, they try to exploit me for this.

In one of my more prominent fantasy leagues, there’s an owner of a team called Boca Da Beppi. That is the team for which Jay Bruce is owned by.

In that league, the owners are lining up one by one to acquire one of my prized assets, Mike Stanton. It’s for good reason, as we’ve already discussed.

Lately, the owner of Boca Da Beppi has been barking up my tree for you guessed it; Stanton. And he’s dangling Jay Bruce. He knows my weaknesses. He knows how badly I would love to have Bruce under my control in this keeper style format for a few years, giving me more reason to live and die with every Bruce at-bat this summer. But I can’t do it.

I can’t do it because Mike Stanton is a 22-year old OPS’ing monster about to come into his own and become the sole reason that I’m going to go from 9th place to the top three in this competitive league where pride means more than cash prize.

I can’t do it because Mike Stanton is the hottest thing going right now, and I knew it that Saturday afternoon last March that I snagged him just a hair sooner than the next guy. For all the things I did wrong last year, this was the biggest thing I did right.

And irony has a mysterious way of working. FanGraphs recently weighed on the subject of Bruce vs. Stanton, and they did it in terms of fantasy value for us:

Mike Stanton has a ton of power, and if component hitter aging curves are to be believed, the 22-year-old should be able to improve his strikeout rate — and therefore his batting average. With power down across baseball, he’s a stud.

[...]

And then you can return to the ages of the respective sluggers. In a keeper league, the two years that Stanton has on Bruce are absolute gold. If they are similar now, and Stanton is two years younger, that means you definitively want the massive Marlin. He’ll give you two more years of production and he’s two years further away from his peak (on the good side). His peak will be much better than Bruce’s peak.

I’m going to ride this out with Stanton. I’ll pair him together in an outfield that will have Jason Heyward and eventually Bryce Harper, and I’ll hope for the best. And no matter how bad I would like to own Bruce, I’ve already accepted the fact he’s owned by an owner that believes more in one-sided than good old fashioned win-win business.