According to FanGraphs, the 2011 Cincinnati Reds figure to be about like we think they’re going to be. They’re going to be in the mix–and a good but not great team. We’re talking anywhere from 82-87 wins, so they figure to be over .500 but trailing the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals in the division who figure to win between 87 and 92 games.
Here’s how FanGraphs projects baseball in the upcoming season:
Rebuilding – Baltimore, Toronto, Cleveland, Kansas City, Los Angeles of Anaheim, Seattle, New York (N), Florida, Washington, Chicago (N), Pittsburgh, Houston, San Diego, and Arizona
Fringe Contenders – Oakland, Detroit, Chicago (A), Minnesota, Cincinnati, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Colorado
Legitimate Contenders – New York (A), Tampa Bay, Texas, Atlanta, St. Louis, and Milwaukee
Established – Philadelphia
Juggernaut – Boston
We don’t buy the Brewers as heavy contenders even with the addition of Zach Greinke and company. But I do think the Reds miss out on the postseason in 2011. I still think the Reds are competitive and fun to watch. They’ll be in the thick of things. But they’re not going back to the postseason in 2011–that I can tell you right now.